AGP Executive Report

Data Centres Policy: Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen says states won’t get “no carve-outs” from new rules requiring data centres to source 100% renewables, with any fossil-fuel case judged case-by-case and held to a “very high bar” on cost and grid reliability. Markets & Rates: ASX is set for a modest rebound after a sharp week hit by sticky inflation fears; banks have started pulling forward expectations for another RBA hike. Housing & Credit Stress: S&P flags arrears risk rising across states as higher rates bite, with Victoria and the ACT showing the highest prime arrears. Retail Fallout: Coles faces local backlash after dropping NSW Mid North Coast bananas, with growers warning of job cuts and a potential boycott. Postal Pressure: Australia Post reports parcels growth but ongoing letter losses, moving to less frequent delivery and signalling weekly delivery may be “inevitable.” Work-from-Home Law Delay: Victoria’s proposed WFH legal right is stalled again, leaving businesses and unions in limbo. Childcare Crunch: G8 Education’s results underline the sector’s squeeze as closures and losses deepen, with more operators under pressure. Corruption Watch: ICAC hears claims of false tax deductions tied to a kickback scheme involving NSW Liberal figures. Flood Disaster: Nepal-China flash floods leave hundreds dead and more than 1,200 missing, including foreign tourists and Australians.

ASX & markets: Wall Street pushed higher after Nvidia’s blockbuster results, with the ASX set to edge up as Virgin and Harvey Norman report ahead of the next wave of earnings. AI & enterprise IT: Nvidia’s guidance highlights a supply squeeze that will shape how buyers plan, budget and procure AI infrastructure. Housing & cost of living: A push to shift gas connection fixed charges away from renters targets fairness as providers warn of higher bills from a shrinking customer base. Cyber & fraud: Australia charges two men over alleged TeamPCP supply-chain attacks, while regulators warn AI could make mortgage fraud easier. Social media regulation: A Meta settlement over teen mental health protections is criticised by a whistleblower as not going far enough. Business & manufacturing: CSL and Adbri start operations of a battery-powered bulk carrier in South Australia, aiming to cut emissions in cement supply chains. Energy & policy: Migration cuts debate escalates as states warn student visa tightening could hit growth. Corporate governance: An ASIC-linked case leaves a western Sydney accountant facing liquidation scrutiny over alleged investor harm.

RBA Rate Call Intensifies: Australia’s July inflation print is still proving “broad-based” underneath the headline, with Deutsche Bank’s economist arguing for a hike as soon as September while Westpac sticks to a hold view—markets have repriced rate risk sharply. ASX Share Moves & Dividends: Reporting season is lifting shareholder returns focus, with Woolworths, Perseus Mining and WiseTech all raising dividends, while South32 posts a 55% profit jump and extends its returns program. Energy & Resources Watchlist: Viva Energy rebounds on refining margins; copper miner Sandfire flags record earnings; Santos stays in the spotlight for energy security and delivery. Defence Contract: Lloyd’s Register wins an Army landing craft medium contract, embedding at Henderson for assurance across the build. Migration Politics: Pauline Hanson clarifies One Nation’s 130,000 net migration cap applies to permanent migrants, not PALM temporary workers—fueling fresh debate ahead of federal votes. Disaster Update: Nepal–Tibet flash floods have killed at least 162 with 1,300+ missing, including Australians among the unaccounted-for.

ASX & markets: Australia’s sharemarket is set for a flat start as Wall Street dips, with investors watching Nvidia and Qantas results. Inflation & rates: Fresh data keeps the RBA on alert, with Australia’s inflation still “sticky” around 3.5% and markets re-pricing rate-hike risk. Food prices: Wheat futures jump to a three-year high as Black Sea shipping disruptions and broader geopolitical risks raise the odds of another food-inflation cycle. Housing: Melbourne home values are now lower than five years ago, reflecting high rates and building pressure, while agents brace for a tougher market. Energy & data centres: The federal government signals a more “flexible” approach to data-centre power rules, easing the renewables-only push for some states. Tech regulation: Australia’s under-16 social media ban is being compared with moves in the UK, as governments tighten child-safety rules. AI outsourcing: South Africa is emerging as an AI outsourcing hub, with demand from US, UK and Australia. Corporate & legal: KPMG Australia is reported to be cutting jobs after a government contract suspension, while class actions are being “declassed” in COVID business-interruption disputes.

Rates & Inflation: July inflation came in hotter than expected (headline 3.5% y/y; trimmed mean 3.6%), flipping market expectations toward at least one more RBA hike, with mortgage holders bracing for a tougher stretch. Retail Earnings: Woolworths lifted sales and profit, helped by its Ooshies promotion, keeping pressure on rivals in Australia’s grocery price war. Superannuation/Markets: ASX sentiment stayed mixed as investors weighed earnings against the renewed rate risk. Financial Crime Regulator: Austrac signalled workforce cuts of up to ~8% as projects end, despite its expanded role in financial crime oversight. Native Title & Mining: WA and the Yindjibarndi group both move to appeal Fortescue compensation, arguing over how economic and cultural losses should be valued. Energy Transition Watch: Wind delivery under Australia’s scheme is lagging, threatening renewable targets as financing and economics bite. AI Governance: National Cabinet backed nationally consistent AI laws and data-centre standards, aiming to balance opportunity with energy and land-use impacts. Business & Policy: Trade minister Don Farrell urged business support for the EU free trade deal as Coalition opposition grows. Crime & Supply Chains: Thieves stole $350,000 of juvenile oysters from an NSW farm, a reminder of how disruption hits primary producers.

Data Centres & AI Regulation: Labor is pushing states to agree on data-centre rules, including a renewable-energy mandate, as an AI expert warns developers are “rapidly losing the public’s consent” and cites a growing moratorium trend overseas. Financial Watchdog: ASIC flags AI misuse, scams and debt collection as top risks while aiming to support responsible innovation amid fast tech change. Energy Policy: DCCEEW has opened consultation on a potential SAF mandate, weighing ambition vs market readiness and how a buy-out price and carbon-credit mechanics would work from 2029. Migration & Housing: Barnaby Joyce defends One Nation’s migration cap plan, arguing demand—not tradies and skilled workers—is driving the housing crisis. Gambling & Consumer Risk: A problem gambler has sued Sportsbet over alleged safety failures tied to $2.5m losses. Business & Investment: Daiwa Securities’ unit will partner with an Aussie VC to launch a fund targeting growth-stage quantum and AI startups. Workforce Costs: Award wage rises from July could lift “market services” inflation, a key RBA watchpoint. Local Economy: iSelect ranks Canberra’s parking among the cheapest, but says poor user ratings drag the overall score.

Property & Construction Shock: Bathla Group has been placed into voluntary administration after a “perfect storm” of a softer property market and rising construction costs, leaving buyers and contractors in limbo while regulators monitor the fallout. Planning & Energy Tensions: Tasmania has approved Firmus Technologies’ 288MW AI data centre at Bell Bay despite noise, water and consultation concerns, as petitions push for a moratorium and the federal government moves toward national data-centre energy rules. Retail Strategy: Coles is investing heavily in supermarkets—about 45 new stores plus major refurbishments—while closing around 30 Liquorland sites, signalling a sharper focus on grocery returns. Markets & Rates: Australian shares edged higher with miners leading and crude easing; the Aussie dollar held near 11-week highs after RBA minutes suggested more members want tightening, keeping rate-hike odds alive. ASX Movers: Electro Optic Systems surged after a record order book and big jump in first-half revenue, while Data#3 also powered a tech-led market lift. Scams & Small Business: Customer-owned banks are urging “Stop, Check and Protect” as scam protections expand, warning one fraudulent invoice can wipe out a business’s hard work. Defence Pipeline: BAE Systems laid the keel for NUSHIP Hunter, a key step in building Australia’s Hunter-class frigates. Dairy Deal: Brownes Dairy has gone to market, with the sale process set to test appetite for WA’s long-running dairy exporter.

Water Policy Backlash: Labor’s water buybacks are being criticised as a “man-made drought” that’s draining Australia’s food bowl by paying premium prices for environmental flows. Housing & Cost-of-Living Pressure: Anglicare says homeownership among 25–34-year-olds has fallen to under 40%—back to 1940s levels—while rents have surged in some areas, leaving younger Australians stressed and squeezed. Online Safety Regulation: Aotearoa NZ’s new online safety bill is welcomed for adding risk assessments and oversight, while campaigners oppose blanket under-16 social media bans. AI Infrastructure Push: SCX.ai and DDN announce a partnership to expand Australia’s sovereign AI inferencing cloud, aiming to keep models and data within Australia. Data Centre Social Licence: Prime Minister Albanese will outline new national obligations for data centres, including energy and water requirements and limits on siting near homes, schools and prime land. Markets & Earnings Watch: ASX is set to edge up as semis weigh on Wall Street; investors turn to reporting season with Coles and Woodside among key releases. Scam & Fraud Risk: Incode warns agentic AI fraud is accelerating, with scams increasingly automated and amplified. Transport & Tourism: Jetstar launches Melbourne–Colombo nonstop flights, adding 50,000+ return seats and reflecting strong Sri Lanka demand.

Workplace Compliance: Payroll Leadership Institute urges employers to re-test pay rules after a Federal Court disclosure showed a “four-hour minimum” casual entitlement error persisted across pay cycles, with remediation estimated at about $77,000 for 248 staff. Audit Fallout: KPMG Australia will cut about 5% of staff (360 employees and 27 partners) after an audit leaks scandal hit consulting revenue and barred it from new government contracts. Insurance & Fraud: Adica joins the Insurance Council of Australia’s ICINA Aurora fraud-fighting platform, initially targeting motor cover fraud via insurer data sharing. M&A Watch: Steadfast’s board recommends shareholders back a $7.7b takeover, with the $6-per-share bid involving Dragoneer and KKR-backed partners. Food & Retail Earnings: Inghams reports profit down as it reduces Woolworths reliance, while Endeavour Group flags a major profit hit. Housing: HSBC’s Paul Bloxham warns house prices likely won’t stabilise until markets expect RBA rate cuts. Construction Sector: Police charge two men after raids tied to alleged fraud and secret commissions, including at CFMEU HQ. Defence & Industry: AUKUS work advances with Henderson set for a major naval shipbuilding maintenance hub, and Hunter-class frigate construction marks a key milestone.

Markets & FX: Wall Street’s rebound helped lift sentiment, with ASX futures pointing higher and the $A strengthening alongside bitcoin, as investors weigh Fed minutes and Middle East risk. Energy & Cost of Living: Perth voters show broad disapproval of Woodside’s Browse gas plans, while consumer and small-business groups urge the AER to cut the rate of return used to set network charges. Housing & Planning: Labor vows to halt Melbourne’s urban sprawl by keeping the urban growth boundary, setting up a fresh election-era fight over where housing should go. Fraud & Banking: AUSTRAC says AI-fuelled fake payslips and documents are powering mortgage fraud, with potentially hundreds of millions in suspected fraudulent loans. Tech & Policy: Australia’s news bargaining laws keep pressure on big platforms to pay for local content, while debate continues over how fast payments settle and what that means for businesses. Work & Skills: A report warns many international graduates land in jobs below their skill level, adding fuel to the political fight over student numbers. Environment & Industry: A Lowy Institute report warns Pacific nations could face unregulated deep-sea mining harms without stronger international guardrails. Sports Business: LIV Golf’s uncertain future grows after the 2026 season ends amid funding cuts and vendor/payment disputes.

ASX Earnings Focus: Computershare’s full-year update puts the spotlight on whether recurring servicing can keep dividend capacity steady as rates and transaction volumes shift. Utilities & Energy Infrastructure: APA Group’s FY26 result lifts margins and distributions, but investors will watch if the growth pipeline can expand without stressing funding discipline. Mining Reset: Energy Resources of Australia is back in focus for rehabilitation delivery and balance-sheet strain after a heavier loss profile. Banking Watch: Commonwealth Bank’s FY26 update reinforces franchise resilience with a higher fully franked dividend and continued digital-led momentum. Housing & Rates Backdrop: New data points to weak wage growth and a property-value hit risk, while markets brace for profit downgrades ahead of fresh inflation and RBA signals. Superannuation Reform: The next stage of pension change can’t wait, with attention on how retirement savings rules evolve. Critical Minerals & Trade: Rare earth competition heats up as Brazil ramps up permits, raising environmental and Indigenous concerns—an issue with direct implications for Australia’s supply chain. Regional Business & Tourism: Spirit of Tasmania IV finally arrives in Devonport after major delays and cost blowouts, with hopes for a tourism and freight boost. Migration Politics: One Nation faces questions over its true net overseas migration target after claims it could add 100,000 more arrivals annually.

AI Policy Push: SA Premier Peter Malinauskas has announced a royal commission into artificial intelligence, with critics questioning whether the “nation-leading” branding is substance or just nimble politics. Trade War Fallout: Canada has walked away from US trade talks and will hit US imports with retaliatory tariffs from September 8, after new US duties of 50% on about US$20b of Canadian goods took effect. ASX Market Watch: Reporting season focus stays on company catalysts: Reliance Worldwide’s takeover interest and CSL’s update-driven reset helped drive sentiment, while investors also weigh results previews from Flight Centre, Rubicon Water, TPG Telecom, IAG and WiseTech. Big Tech News Payments: Australia’s news bargaining levy and related tech-giant payment rules keep pressure on Meta and Google, reshaping media economics. Health & Business Ops: Australian health provider Kairos Care is exploring IT-BPO expansion in the Philippines, aiming for export-oriented back-office services. Food & Farming: Inghams says bird flu lockdowns won’t create material extra costs, while NT banana growers describe cyclone damage as a long, generational recovery challenge.

Big Tech News Law: Australia’s new levy forces Meta, Google and others to pay for local news, putting fresh pressure on platforms’ content deals and media economics. Cyber & AI Risk: A Jamf CEO warns that deeper AI use is raising security and cost incidents, as teams run AI tools and processes beyond traditional web gateways. Online Safety in the Pacific: Australia and PNG expand online safety cooperation, focusing on training and child protection, plus a regional e-safety symposium. Social Cohesion Inquiry: A royal commission’s final hearings hear calls to strengthen cohesion and tackle antisemitism, while debating how to fight prejudice without silencing debate. Housing & Cost of Living: Regional dwelling values are slipping as the downturn spreads, and the Hawkesbury is flagged as exposed to both metro and regional pressures. Energy & Industry: WA consumer and small-business protections move forward, while a major WA wind project shows how renewables build-out is scaling. Food & Commodities: Analysts warn of a potential global shortage of high-protein wheat, which could lift the food-grade premium. Health & Biosecurity: H5N1 avian flu is spreading across Australia’s bird population, with undercount risk as cases mount. Sports Governance: The Sydney Swans suspend five players amid an investigation, highlighting how club standards can trigger action before criminal outcomes.

Big Tech News Deal: Australia has passed a law to force major platforms like Meta and Google to pay for local news, with a 2.5% levy on ad revenue if they don’t strike qualifying commercial agreements with publishers. Superannuation & Advice: A push for simpler, affordable retirement advice is back in focus, with commentary arguing there’s progress on financial advice rules but a “big hole” remains for retirees needing one-off help. Markets & Deals: Insurance broker Steadfast has agreed to a $7.7b take-private buyout by a KKR-backed consortium, while JBS moves to buy the remaining Pilgrim’s Pride stake in a $1.2b stock deal. Energy Prices Mystery: WA saw a midnight power-price spike driven by batteries, raising questions about how storage is being managed as the grid transitions. Small Business Survival: Analysis shows almost one million Australian businesses stopped trading in four years, with survival rates slipping as inflation and costs bite. AI & Data Centres: Perth is preparing a Senate submission calling for clearer rules for data centres as the boom strains energy, water and planning.

Housing & Cost Pressures: Rents are rising faster than wages under Labor, with fresh concern that budget tax changes could push affordability further off track. Small Business Boost: The Instant Asset Write‑Off is being made permanent, letting eligible small firms immediately deduct assets under $20,000 as new business registrations hit record levels. ASX Corporate Moves: James Hardie agrees to sell its European Fermacell business to Holcim for €840m in cash, while Zip Co announces an on‑market buyback after a stronger year. Energy & Markets: First gas from the Beetaloo basin starts flowing, testing Australia’s shale ambitions, as the Aussie heads for its longest weekly winning streak since 2020. Tech & Cyber: A cyberattack has disrupted Hachette’s distribution, and Australia’s modern slavery framework faces consultation to strengthen enforcement. Health & Policy: NICE backs routine NHS funding for ex‑situ machine perfusion for liver transplants, and Australia opens consultation on modern slavery reforms. Travel Industry: ATIA’s new independent travel agents committee is already feeding into surcharging and Fiji tourism tax guidance.

Housing Watch: Federal advisers have pushed back the National Housing Accord target, now expecting 1.2 million homes by end-2030, with the downturn worsening as higher rates and tax changes bite. Regional Property: Cotality says the housing slump is spreading beyond capitals, with non-capital dwelling values down 0.1% over the quarter versus 2.5% in capital cities. Big Tech & Media: Parliament has passed the “News Bargaining Incentive”, forcing major platforms to either strike paid deals with publishers or pay a 2.5% levy on local ad revenue. EVs & Costs: Australia’s EV sales are surging, but a key question remains whether they’re cheaper to run once servicing and repairs are factored in. Markets: ASX futures point to a softer open as Wall Street slips on higher bond yields and oil-price worries. Fraud Alert: An ABC investigation alleges an Israel-linked investment fraud network defrauded more than 4,000 Australians of hundreds of millions. Business Moves: Service Stream wins two $144m Transport for Victoria contracts, expanding its maintenance work. Venture Capital: Airtree tells start-ups it will sell out if they can’t show they’re safe from AI-driven disruption.