AGP Executive Report

Markets & Rates: Oil prices jumped after Red Sea escalation, lifting bond yields and reviving RBA rate-hike fears—bad news for mortgages and rate-sensitive stocks. Employment Watch: Australia’s unemployment held at 4.4% in June, but Victoria’s jobless rate rose to 5.1%, keeping pressure on state-level demand. AI & Regulation: Australia moved to legislate AI data-centre standards, while Uber cited AI for cutting about 10% of customer support roles and pushing more office work. Data Centres & Power: New Zealand’s Mercury took a stake in Datagrid to back a 280MW campus, underlining how power supply is becoming the bottleneck for data growth. Business & Policy: The Senate advanced a bill to force social media firms to open offices in Nigeria, while Australia’s Fair Work Court debate reignited union-vs-business arguments. Local Economy: Canberra’s building industry is backing a charity house project to tackle domestic and family violence, with auction proceeds staying in the ACT. Global Mobility: Malaysia and Australia share seventh place in the Henley Passport Index, with visa-free access to 183 destinations.

Jobs & Rates: Australia’s labour market stayed strong in June, with employment jumping 76,300 and unemployment holding at 4.4%, giving the RBA more room to consider another hike as oil prices stoke inflation fears. Housing: The housing slowdown deepened in Melbourne, with house prices down 3.1% in the quarter and annual growth turning negative, while listings rise and auctions clear less often. Cybersecurity: Origin Energy confirmed a hack that may have exposed customer names, addresses, dates of birth, phone numbers and partial bank/credit card details, with affected customers to be contacted. Banking Leadership: Macquarie says CEO Shemara Wikramanayake will retire on November 6, replaced by long-serving executive Greg Ward. Energy/Markets: Oil pushed above $95 a barrel on Middle East tensions, lifting energy and miners on the ASX as investors weigh inflation risk. Workplace Health: A new burnout study argues Australia’s workplaces are using outdated tools and should focus on root causes, not rest-based fixes. Regional Diplomacy: ASEAN talks in Manila put energy and food security front and centre amid Iran and South China Sea pressures. Aviation/Travel: Saudia and Garuda Indonesia sign a partnership framework aimed at smoother connectivity across their networks, including routes to Australia. Tech & Policy: Australia’s sovereign AI hosting push gains momentum as Macquarie launches protected-level Azure options for government agencies.

Middle East Risk: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned ASEAN leaders that Iran’s proposed tolling of the Strait of Hormuz would set a dangerous precedent for global trade, as diplomats push for de-escalation. Indo-Pacific Diplomacy: Rubio also met India’s S Jaishankar in Manila to accelerate an “almost complete” interim trade deal and advance defence agreements, while the Quad reaffirmed support for a free and open Indo-Pacific and ASEAN centrality. Housing Pressure: Research for the Australian Property Institute says Labor’s tax changes (negative gearing and CGT discount changes) are weighing more on home prices than recent RBA rate hikes, with clearance rates staying below 50%. Mortgage Stress: A new report finds 421,725 households in mortgage stress across the 80 most affected postcodes, with the sharpest deterioration in Perth and rising pressure in some blue-chip suburbs. ASX & Markets: ASX futures point to a rise as oil climbs on Iran tensions; investors await Australia’s June jobs data and key US earnings. Tech & Regulation: France passed a social media ban for under-15s but stripped out enforcement mechanics, leaving platforms’ verification approach to regulators. AI & Media: News Corp sued Brave over alleged AI scraping of copyrighted journalism, escalating the fight over content licensing. Energy & Industry: Councils urged China builders to fix Australia’s housing crisis, while a new off-grid gas data centre plan targets up to 2GW near Darwin.

Revolut Banking Push: Revolut has secured an Australian banking licence and launched Revolut Bank Australia, with existing customers transitioned automatically and new savings/credit products set to roll out. Housing & Credit Pressure: HIA says new home sales softness is worsening, with builders expecting commencements to fall as interest rates bite and SMSF borrowing restrictions are set to trigger contract cancellations. Mining Tech Deal: Singapore’s Novo Tellus has invested in Toowoomba-based RME, backing its mill relining systems and aftermarket services expansion. Courtroom Wage Fallout: A Federal Court ruling finds Domino’s misled franchisees on wage payments, potentially exposing it to compensation claims for thousands of underpaid workers. Defence & Sovereign Testing: Queensland is backing a private outback “space port” range near Thargomindah for guided weapons and horizontal-launch testing. ASX Healthcare Momentum: Proteomics International surged after signing Healius as its exclusive Australian pathology distribution partner for its Promarker portfolio. Energy Transition in the Regions: Pacific Energy and Horizon Power have agreed a renewables-plus-storage system to supply up to 80% of Menzies’ power demand by 2027. Cyber Resilience Warning: PNG needs stronger cybersecurity as ransomware and phishing threats rise with digital transformation.

Fintech Banking: Revolut has secured an Australian APRA deposit-taking licence and launched “Revolut Bank Australia”, pledging about A$400m investment over five years as it transitions its 1m+ local retail customers into a fully regulated banking setup. Big Four Shake-up: KPMG Australia has appointed John Sams as permanent CEO amid fallout from a confidential client-data scandal, as Treasury’s consultation on breaking up Big Four audit and consulting arms closes soon (with potential structural separation on the table). ASX & Markets: Wall Street climbed on another AI-led rally, lifting S&P 500 and Nasdaq; ASX futures pointed to a modest gain as investors weigh whether AI spending will translate into profits. Housing & Costs: A builder argues waiting on renovations is a losing game as labour and imported materials keep costs rising; separate reporting flags Australia heading for its weakest living-standards decade in more than a century. Energy & Travel Prices: Qantas warns jet fuel costs could keep airfares higher for months after Middle East conflict, despite dips in petrol. Insurance & Risk: Insurers face pressure as climate risk becomes harder to price, with regulators expecting more transparency as premiums jump. Local Services: A new map shows “pharmacy deserts” exist beyond remote areas, including parts of outer-city Melbourne. Climate Resilience: Lismore is “open for business” 18 months after major floods, highlighting recovery lessons for flood-prone regions. Tech & Mapping: Esri will use Nearmap aerial imagery as a default layer in ArcGIS Living Atlas, expanding high-resolution mapping access for government, utilities and real estate. Workplace Insurance: Rising workers’ compensation claims—especially mental health—are pushing business insurers toward the brink. Education Partnership: Australia and the Philippines launched a A$40m (P1.6b) EQUIP program to improve employability of senior high graduates, with possible extra Australian funding.

Markets & Rates: New Zealand’s inflation print is expected to keep the Reserve Bank focused on further hikes, while Australia’s banks stay under pressure and Revolut wins an Australian deposit licence. Energy & Cost of Living: Polling shows Australians won’t pay extra for net zero, as households brace for higher power bills. AI Governance: Australia is moving to tighten rules on automated decision-making in government and workplaces, aiming for transparency and human accountability. Regulation & Compliance Tech: Kyckr reports 46% revenue growth, citing rising demand for verified KYB/AML data in Australia and North America. Competition Watch: A US judge pauses Paramount–Warner Bros Discovery’s $81bn merger, giving states more time in court. Environment & Energy Projects: Conservation groups challenge Murray Watt’s 40-year extension for Woodside’s North West Shelf gas hub. Mining & Resources: Silver Mines completes a feasibility study for the Bowdens Silver Project, flagging a long mine life and strong returns. Cybersecurity: Sophos warns ransomware is increasingly driven by compromised identities, with major recovery costs. Digital Infrastructure: TelkomGroup and partners land a new submarine cable in Batam to boost Indonesia’s digital connectivity.

ASX & markets: Wall Street steadied after AI-led selloffs, while ASX futures point to a softer open as chip and AI winners rebound. Property & taxes: REA data says Labor’s tax changes are only delivering a “miniscule” lift in new homeowners, with clearance rates still weak. Energy policy: Labor conference delegates are pushing for a gas export tax, with ministers playing down odds. Resources & industry: Alcoa cut 2026 alumina production guidance after instability at its WA Pinjarra refinery tied to gas disruptions. Climate litigation: Conservation groups are set to challenge Woodside’s 40-year North West Shelf gas extension in Federal Court. Tech & cyber: Hugging Face says an autonomous AI agent carried out an unprecedented breach of its model repository. AI in infrastructure: A Queensland council will trial AI-powered traffic lights, raising questions about fairness and road priority. Global geopolitics: Philippines and China trade accusations after a South China Sea encounter as Quad talks loom. Deal watch: A US judge paused the Paramount–Warner merger, giving states time to press antitrust claims.

Data Centres vs Housing: Housing Industry Association warns data-centre rush is crowding out land, power and water for new homes, arguing some projects get “preferential” planning treatment and could be approved faster than housing. AI Governance: Australia’s “Office of AI” push is paired with new rules for data centres to match power use and protect creators’ work, while regulators move to curb automated AI decision-making. Financial Services & Fraud: Senate inquiry hears banks want easier access to ATO data via the consumer data right to stop AI-generated fake loan documents; industry says it’s a “win-win” fix. Market & Macro: ASX futures point higher but war jitters and oil spikes from renewed Iran conflict keep investors cautious; Aussie and kiwi dollars wobble ahead of key inflation data. Energy Transition Risk: Insurers and experts flag thermal runaway risks as battery storage expands, stressing monitoring and safety systems. Insurance & Climate: Perils estimates Victoria’s January bushfires cost insurers $860m. Business Moves: Next Capital to buy Fujitsu’s Australian data centre business; Ascentium adds Melbourne firm MGI Dobbyn Carafa; Mamamia appoints Luca Lavigne CEO and Southern Cross Media names Natalie Harvey chief revenue officer. Super & Cost of Living: ACT Government tops up its public service offer with higher super and inflation-linked payments, to be voted on in August. Retail Savings: Research says switching 20 branded items to home brands could cut grocery bills by up to 43% (about $3400 a year).

AI & Productivity: A Senate inquiry is weighing how AI could lift Australia’s productivity, but warns broad AI rules may slow investment and adoption, while banks flag rising fraud risks as criminals use AI to generate false documents. AI Data Centres: The government’s push for mandatory standards for AI use and data centre development is colliding with local backlash over power and water demands, as opposition grows to the infrastructure footprint. Tax & Jobs: Labor’s plan to scrap the capital gains tax discount and replace it with an inflation-adjusted minimum 30% rate has experts warning it could push startups to domicile overseas, putting thousands of jobs at risk. Wellbeing & Cost of Living: New ABS-based analysis shows “wellbeing poverty” is rising, with life satisfaction at very low levels doubling over a decade, linked to ongoing cost-of-living pressure. Digital Rights & Policing: WA’s real-time facial recognition trial has launched with privacy concerns after an algorithm-led arrest in a public setting. Energy & Defence: Lowy Institute research urges Australia to widen Defence focus to the north-west Indian Ocean amid Iran-driven trade disruption. Markets: The dollar was steady but ended the week lower as tame US inflation data cooled expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, with safe-haven demand tied to Iran-US tensions.

AI & Speech Controls: A Meta Oversight Board study warns major chatbots are more likely to refuse criticism of restrictive leaders, raising fears AI could spread government influence online. AI Policy & Data Centres: Australia’s push to set AI guardrails is intensifying, with new rules aimed at data-centre power and water use and tighter oversight. Geopolitics & Trade: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to visit Manila for Asean meetings, spotlighting US-Asean cooperation and the “free and open Indo-Pacific” amid China’s growing influence. China-Taiwan Risk: US Senator Tammy Duckworth says China may favour an economic blockade of Taiwan over a full invasion in 2028, using maritime “safety” as cover. Consumer & Media Rights: A growing debate argues consumer rights lost in the digital media age are unlikely to return. Health & Safety: ABC testing found industrial cleaner ingredient tert-butyl alcohol in a cheap vodka bottle, reigniting concerns about alcohol safety. Local Politics: NSW Nationals preselect Mareeta Grundy for Monaro ahead of the March 2027 state election.

AI Regulation & Data Centres: Australia’s new national AI approach would require data centres to match power use with power generation and push water-efficiency rules, while also aiming to protect creators’ control over how their work is used for AI training. Education Costs: NSW parents are spending $4.5b a year on private and Catholic schools, with average private tuition up sharply over the past 15 years. Energy & Recycling: A $25m solar panel recycling pilot is stalled after a complaint paused the tender, leaving millions of panels headed to landfill. Digital Identity: New details on how digital driver’s licences could work in New Zealand include offline use, privacy safeguards and police verification via a phone app. Housing & Foreign Buyers: Chinese investors are retreating from Australian property as Japanese buyers surge, raising questions for the rental market. Business & Markets: Chip stocks slid into a bear market as AI demand cools, while oil price moves are adding pressure to Australian businesses. Space & STEM: Curtin’s Binar program is set to launch more mini satellites with new state funding.

AI & Energy Demand: Asia’s AI data-centre boom is pushing electricity demand so hard that coal is re-emerging as a stopgap, raising reliability and emissions concerns for governments and utilities. AI Governance in Australia: PM Albanese’s push for an Office of AI and new rules for large data centres is aimed at tightening water, power and IP protections while setting national AI standards. Data Centres & Costs: Australia is moving to legally require large-scale data centres to secure clean energy supplies and meet efficiency expectations, as critics warn the build-out could strain land and power. Big Tech & Copyright: Australia’s stance is also hitting big tech over AI training and content rights, with pressure to protect Australian creatives. Charity Pressure on Business: Charitabl founder Mike Gore says households carry most of the $9.1bn annual giving burden, urging big companies to boost donations. Insurance & Dealmaking: KKR is joining a consortium to buy Steadfast Group for $5.3b, reshaping Australia’s insurance-broker landscape. Laos Methanol Case: Families of two Australian teens killed in Laos are criticising what they see as lenient charges over the methanol poisoning, after Laos authorities faced scrutiny over process and transparency.

AI & Data Centres: Australia’s PM has pushed a new national AI framework that would force data centres to produce as much power as they use, while also tightening rules on water use and protecting IP—setting up a major compliance test for the next wave of AI infrastructure. Energy Policy: Battery installs have plunged after federal subsidy changes cut rebates for bigger systems, with small-scale installations dropping from April’s surge to around 20,000 in May. Housing & Property: Townsville is still the hottest market in Australia, while parts of Greater Brisbane are cooling, with more suburbs showing negative growth. Big Build Integrity: A Victorian labour hire firm linked to alleged Big Build influence has pleaded guilty to falsifying documents, highlighting ongoing pressure for stronger powers and oversight. Retail & Consumer: Aldi is planning an expansion in a Scottish town, including more EV charging and “future-proofed” infrastructure—another sign of retailers tying store upgrades to electrification. Business & Markets: Oil price risks are rising amid renewed Strait of Hormuz tensions, with fuel-price pressure a live concern for households and businesses.

Telstra Outage Fallout: Telstra told a Senate inquiry its nationwide mobile outage was linked to a Network Time Protocol server update that staff were warned about but didn’t fix, with controls and documentation falling short. AI Governance & Skills: ACCA and CA ANZ say 93% of finance professionals worry AI insights can be inaccurate or biased, pushing demand for stronger governance and upskilling. ASX & Markets: Australian shares look set for a worst session in weeks as miners and gold stocks slide on weaker bullion and ongoing Middle East risk; the Aussie and kiwi dollars edge higher as US rate-hike bets cool. AI Policy Push: Albanese’s AI plan is framed as “tougher rules” plus faster investment, but worker and creative groups warn it may be more complex in practice. Data Centres Backlash: Japan’s data-centre boom is meeting growing local opposition over heat, noise and safety, while Australia moves to regulate power and water use. Trade Watch: US safeguard probe into lamb imports begins, with Australia’s red meat sector stressing no immediate market access change. Childcare Funding Rules: FDC and IHC services face fee-growth caps and quality benchmarks, with payments at risk if quality standards slip.

AI & Biotech Innovation: Intactis Bio has launched Biostack, a Tetris-style public demo using neuron-based “biohybrid processing units” designed for data-centre racks, pitching major energy-efficiency gains. Cyber & Consumer Protection: ASIC is warning about a surge in “pump and dump” scams targeting older Australians, including hijacked identities of well-known economists. Telecom Reliability: Telstra executives face a parliamentary grilling after a nationwide outage disrupted triple-zero calls, EFTPOS and public transport, with compensation claims now in focus. Regional AI Divide: An educator says Australia’s new AI framework risks leaving regional businesses behind unless rollout support is built into the rules. Energy & Data Centres Policy: The government’s push to regulate AI data centres includes new requirements around power and water use, with debate over whether the guardrails go far enough. Retail & Corporate Distress: Rosendorff Diamonds is entering administration for a second time as the ATO sues a new director over a major tax bill. Market & Investment Context: Big Tech leaders warn enterprises they’re effectively paying twice for AI—once for compute and again via handing over proprietary know-how.

AI Policy Push: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese unveiled Australia’s long-awaited AI plan, pitching it as a jobs-first approach and setting up a new AI office to manage risks and proposals, while debate immediately turns to electricity prices, housing impacts and whether the data-centre boom will deliver real economic value. Data Centre Rules Under Fire: As national standards are set to start in early 2027, advocates are urging temporary protections now, warning firms could rush projects through before stricter rules bite. Modern Slavery Crackdown: Labor’s platform draft drops a prior pledge, but the government is strengthening the Modern Slavery Act with a new criminal offence for large firms that fail to prevent forced labour, drawing criticism from business groups over added compliance burden. Energy, Water and Insurance Pressure: After the 2025 Taree floods, an insurance roundtable warned recovery isn’t resilience and pushed for mitigation funding to keep premiums affordable. Corporate and Market Moves: Frasers Group reported revenue growth and profit lift tied to takeover activity, while Australia’s ASX trade stayed cautious as mining weakness offset gains. Jobs Shock in Tasmania: Liberty Bell Bay’s manganese smelter has been ordered to close immediately, ending operations and leaving more than 200 workers without jobs. Cyber Trust Hit: Partnered Health’s GP/skin clinic network breach is raising fresh concerns about security and patient trust in digital healthcare.